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Self-Driving Cars: An Opinion Piece
Apr. 6th, 2015 08:42 amOver the last little while, there has been a great deal of talk about the potential for self-driving cars. Nowhere has this been more prevalent than in the blind community, where the concept of a self-driving car is viewed by many as the great liberator. It's not difficult to understand why this is so. One of the biggest frustrations experienced by blind people is the inability to get from point A to point B by simply getting into a car and going there.
But I, personally, believe that blind people are in for some major disappointments with respect to the possible car of the future. I think blind people will find themselves surprised and upset by the results of what is currently an experiment into the potential of self-driving cars.
For starters, it's not going to happen as quickly as a lot of people are predicting. I'm hearing numbers like ten to twenty years, and I say not a chance. While some remarkable things have happened in the self-driving car experiment, it is still a very far-from-proven technology. Testing in the real world has been roughly the equivalent of sticking a toe in the water for a nanosecond. There are so many variables in the real world when it comes to automotive transportation, it's going to be impossible to program all of them into a computer, and it will take a very long time to program a computer to intuit the variables for which it has not been programmed. A small subset of these variables includes weather; animals crossing the road; other unplanned obstructions; protests blocking the road; power outages; police situations; construction; school children in school zones; computer failure either in the car in question or in another vehicle; engine failure; earthquakes. As I said, the list of variables is far greater than this, but it gives you an idea.
And let's say self-driving cars eventually come of age and become the norm. Do blind people really think that these cars will have no way for humans to regain control, should it be necessary? And will regulatos allow cars to be on the road with no one in them capable of gaining control, should it become necessary?
I, personally, think that blind people expecting to be zipping around in self-driving cars any time before the end of the century should think again. Don't hold your breath, it ain't happening.
But I, personally, believe that blind people are in for some major disappointments with respect to the possible car of the future. I think blind people will find themselves surprised and upset by the results of what is currently an experiment into the potential of self-driving cars.
For starters, it's not going to happen as quickly as a lot of people are predicting. I'm hearing numbers like ten to twenty years, and I say not a chance. While some remarkable things have happened in the self-driving car experiment, it is still a very far-from-proven technology. Testing in the real world has been roughly the equivalent of sticking a toe in the water for a nanosecond. There are so many variables in the real world when it comes to automotive transportation, it's going to be impossible to program all of them into a computer, and it will take a very long time to program a computer to intuit the variables for which it has not been programmed. A small subset of these variables includes weather; animals crossing the road; other unplanned obstructions; protests blocking the road; power outages; police situations; construction; school children in school zones; computer failure either in the car in question or in another vehicle; engine failure; earthquakes. As I said, the list of variables is far greater than this, but it gives you an idea.
And let's say self-driving cars eventually come of age and become the norm. Do blind people really think that these cars will have no way for humans to regain control, should it be necessary? And will regulatos allow cars to be on the road with no one in them capable of gaining control, should it become necessary?
I, personally, think that blind people expecting to be zipping around in self-driving cars any time before the end of the century should think again. Don't hold your breath, it ain't happening.
